The ECOWAS protocol expressly forbids the overthrow of democratic governments through force. As a matter of fact, it adamantly maintains that “every accession to power must be made through free, fair, and transparent elections.” Additionally, it exudes “zero tolerance for power obtained or maintained by unconstitutional means”. In light of the aforementioned and in accordance with the authority vested in him as the Chairman of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could give the putschists in the Niger Republic a one-week deadline to release President Mohamed Bazoum, who they have been holding captive since Friday, July 26, and to immediately return to constitutional order.
It’s also true that President Tinubu behaved in accordance with precedent by taking such actions and issuing such orders. After the Cote d’Ivoire presidential election on October 31, 2010, former President Goodluck Jonathan, who was the chairman of ECOWAS, entered the fray rather than mediating the impasse between former Presidents Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Quattara. He supported Alassane Quattara instead of the East. President Jonathan threatened to depose President Gbagbo, who was seeking reelection, with a zeal that bordered on catholic. In the presidential election, Gbagbo received 38% of the votes, compared to Quattara’s 32% on the first ballot. President Tinubu would portray himself and Nigeria in a quixotic and pitiful light if he acted in accordance with ECOWAS protocols and a precedent set by President Jonathan in the Cote d’Ivoire crisis. He gave an order that he was unable to carry out. By doing so, he broke the most elementary rule of international relations: Never make a threat you cannot keep. In doing so, he not only turned the ideas of Thomas Hobbes and Niccol Machiavelli, two of the greatest thinkers of power, on their heads.
President Tinubu must be hanging his action on a very flimsy and slack hook even if he is basing it on prior precedent. This is because President Olusegun Obasanjo, a soldier’s soldier, refrained from using military force in the 1999 coup in the Niger Republic that resulted in the death of former President Ibrahim Bare Mainassara. He used diplomacy to gently remove Daouda Malam Wanke, the coup’s leader, and his accomplices. It’s concerning how quickly President Tinubu assumed the ECOWAS chairmanship. On May 29, just days after his inauguration, he was chosen to chair the august body. This came after a meeting of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government on Tuesday, July 9 in Bissau, the nation’s capital. It’s interesting to note that talk about his chances of winning in the Nigerian media was rampant even before the election.
More concerning is the fact that President Tinubu had turned to warmongering and sabre-rattling in defiance of resounding calls from stakeholders of all stripes for him to tread carefully and seek resolution through diplomacy. Many Nigerians made an effort to persuade the president that Nigeria and Niger have longstanding ties in terms of religion and culture. Most of the Northern Emirates and former empires extended up to modern-day Niger, Cameroon, and Chad if not for colonial boundaries. Beyond this, Nigeria has always been seen as a big brother by the Niger Republic. Additionally, it has supported Nigeria during its most trying times, including the fratricide-filled Nigerian Civil War and the current threat posed by the Boko Haram insurgency. This does not change the fact that Nigeria provides electricity to the Niger Republic in exchange for it not damming the River Niger upstream.
Nigeria’s relationship with the Niger Republic is so complex, delicate, and storied that legends and songs have been written about it. One such well-known song’s lyrics are: Nigeria Da Niger Duk Daya Suke! Niger and Nigeria are the same thing, therefore! The speed with which President Tinubu imposed a number of sanctions on that impoverished nation, including cutting off its electricity, in spite of the long-standing Memorandum of Understanding, or MoU, between Nigeria and the Niger Republic in respect to the latter’s refusal to dam the River Niger, only serves to intensify his zeal for overthrowing the coupists in the Niger Republic. Many stakeholders have started to speculate and insinuate an ulterior motive because President Tinubu’s hatred of the coup plotters in the Niger Republic is so intense and bizarre, especially in light of the fact that it is directed against all appeals. Currently, it is claimed that he is allowing himself to act in that troubled nation as a stand-in for France and the United States, which appear to be losing the superpower rivalry.
It is curious—and even perplexing—that the US and France, who still maintain military bases in Niger Republic, were only interested in extracting uranium in Arlit and Akokan in the Agadez Region, while Niger Republic was suffering under the scourge of insurgency and alleged bad governance under Bazoum’s administration. The Niger Republic ranks as the world’s fourth-largest uranium producer. Its uranium is thought to be of the highest quality for using in nuclear power plants and making nuclear weapons. Khaled Abou Zahr, Editor of Alwatan Al Arabi, highlighted how France is losing out to Russia and China on its former colonies in West and North Africa in a recent insightful op-ed on eurasia.com. Although France has expressed regret for colonialism, he claimed that it still lectures rather than developing genuine relationships.
The point needs to be emphasised here: Nigeria faces far more daunting challenges than the Niger Republic, despite critics pointing to President Tinubu’s weaknesses to imply that he may be a willing lackey of the West. It experiences deteriorating and increased insecurity. And the near absence of sound governance causes it severe harm. Furthermore, when President Jonathan decided to support Quattara in 2011 (who is now encouraging Tinubu), insurgency, banditry, and terrorism had not yet taken over the nation. Nigerians were not as suffocated as they are now, when they are pleading for space to breathe, despite the fact that the economy was bad.
President Tinubu would do well to concentrate his efforts on these issues given the sombre nature of our vital statistics, the pervasiveness of poverty, the millions of youths trudging the streets without jobs, the regular killings of Nigerians by bandits, marauders, and terrorists, the millions of people who go hungry, and the millions more who are dejected due to wanton suffering. To his eternal delight, he will learn that maintaining a good government—one that quickly distributes benefits to millions of struggling Nigerians—is the key to achieving the political survival he so desperately seeks.
According to a proverbial saying, charity starts at home. It all starts in Nigeria. Mr. President, please have a laser-like focus on Nigeria. Laissez la Niger Republic être.
